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With the popularity of Nick Fury, Agents Coulson and Hill, Hawkeye, Black Widow from The Avengers movie this summer, it would be semi-foolish to not have this book out there. Although there have been Nick Fury/S.H.I.E.L.D. stories before, and while they might not have sold that well, releasing them now with interest in the characters and organization at an all-time high it could be one of the most successful series within the Marvel NOW! initiative - plus everyone loves Phil Coulson.
If there was anything Marvel needs within this relaunch it's a little diversity among the books. While the majority of DC's rebooted books were hero centric, not all of them are. There's All Star Western, Suicide Squad, Deathstroke, Red Hood and the Outlaws, Swamp Thing, Demon Knights - Marvel should take note on these and have less hero centric books. A S.H.I.E.L.D. book is a great opportunity for that and would allow for them to have an espionage series, plus the opportunity to have Phil Coulson in a monthly title is too good to pass up.
Likelihood of happening: If it does happen I'd expect it to be one of the last series they introduce.