Many fans are looking to compare the box office projections for Superman 2025 and The Fantastic Four: The First Steps, especially when both superhero movies will be releasing nationwide and globally in July. DC’s Superman reboot, which flies into theatres on July 11 in the US, has a two-week head start on Marvel’s Fantastic Four reboot, which drops on July 25. While we would expect Superman 2025 to have the edge in this head-to-head battle, both summer blockbusters are actually very close to one another when it comes to the current box office predictions for their opening weekend and overall domestic sales. Fortunately, a recent report has delved into the numbers more closely to provide an answer.
Superman 2025 vs. Fantastic Four: The First Steps box office predictions
The latest box office projections for Superman 2025 has it earning between $130 million and $171 million during its opening weekend, while The Fantastic Four: The First Steps is well within striking distance with a range between $125 million and $155 million for its own opening weekend.
These predictions are based on a July 3 report from BoxOfficeTheory, which contains updated numbers that have Fantastic Four closing in on Superman in just a few weeks before they release. Compared to a report in June by the box office tracking newsletter, the projections for The Fantastic Four film have remained the same while those for Superman 2025 continue to dip.
We detailed earlier than Superman’s opening weekend numbers were already lowered to $135 million to $175 million, but now that has been decreased even further by about $5 million on both ends. Similarly, the forecast for its overall domestic sales have also fell, going from $370-$510 million to $358-$457 million. That’s nearly a 10% decrease on the upper limit. Meanwhile, Fantastic Four 2025 remains on track to have domestic sales between $277 million and $395 million, which is still quite a distance away from Superman’s, though the momentum is shifting in its favor.
The site doesn’t explicitly explain why the figures for Superman 2025 were lowered yet again. It does reveal, though, that the film’s “Thursday pre-sales are currently pacing for roughly $20 million when weighed against comps like Thunderbolts* and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.” Since these Thursday pre-sales would be on June 10, that could factor into why the movie’s opening weekend numbers have dipped further. In an earlier analysis, it said that the 2025 summer schedule is “flooded” with Jurassic World Rebirth and believes that it had put too much weight on the movie’s social media metrics.
That said, the report still remains relatively positive for Superman 2025, stating that it is “posting a stronger Friday-through-Sunday share of weekend pre-sales so far.” It admits that a portion of its opening sales will largely depend on word of mouth, with reviews for Superman 2025 slated to arrive on July 7 for social reviews and June 8 for critics’ reviews.
As for other opening week projections for Superman 2025 in the US, several studio insiders have been reportedly more conservative with their range of $90 million to $125 million. This is somewhat of an outlier, though, since the National Research Group (NRG) said in June that it would open with $135 million (specifically $125-145 million). On the flipside, Fantastic Four’s box office projections increased from its initial expectations, going from $125-$136 million to $125-$155 million.
However, it’s still unclear what the budget for the Fantastic Four movie is, which will impact how much it will need to make at the box office to break even and to be considered a success by Marvel. That doesn’t show as much confidence compared to Superman 2025, which has had more details shared about its budget. An insider revealed that the movie cost roughly $225 million, meaning that would need to pass $500 million to break even and $700 million for DC to consider it a hit.
