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Much like Daredevil I'm opposed to the idea of rebooting The Punisher because of where the book currently stands. Greg Rucka and Marco Checchetto have crafted one of the best runs with the character since Ennis' well known MAX series. They have put the character back in the 616 universe at large and really grounded him in reality. Frank Castle has really been taken to heart as a soldier and as an old man. The way Rucka writes his precision and dedication to his own cause takes the age old mythos of the character and makes it seem real.
Now, the Punisher doesn't stick around on one series for too long these days which is a bad thing for us fans. Jason Aaron's MAX run was the most recent to end and it stopped at #22, Rucka's book is currently at issue #13. Most of the series throughout the character's history have run between only six issues through on average about 25 or 30, with some of the longer runs going from 75 to 100. I'd love to see Rucka write Frank Castel for 100 issues but it just doesn't seem likely, and that's got nothing to do with the relaunch really.
Likelihood of happening: I'd say it's a sure thing but we might also get to keep the current series. We already know that "Punisher: War Zone' will be returning in October, but this doesn't necessarily mean that the regular series will be canceled and if anything it means the current creative team will at least jump to the other book.