It looks like Weapons is peaking at the right time and is expected to beat every other film at the domestic box office this weekend, including The Fantastic Four: First Steps and Freakier Friday. Last week, it was projected that the psychological horror film directed by Zach Cregger would rake in a solid $25 million to $34 million from US and Canada theaters. That number has only risen and by a considerable amount too within just a week, as Weapons quickly heads toward its nationwide release of Thursday, August 8. A new report sheds light on why the film has continued to gain tremendous momentum and is on track to become one of this year’s breakout hits.
What is the latest box office tracking for Weapons (2025)?
The box office predictions for Weapons (2025) have it earning $34 million, or in the range of $31-41 million, over its domestic 3-day opening weekend.
That’s slightly past Freakier Friday’s predictions at $30.5 million and nearly twice as much as The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ $18.3 million, which is a surprising 53% decline for the Marvel reboot’s third weekend. These projections come from an August 6 report from the analytics site Box Office Theory, which shares details on the movie’s steady climb. That said, it should be noted that traditional industry tracking has Weapons earning $25 million.
When it comes to presales, Weapons is tracking higher than other strong horror films like 28 Years Later and Longlegs. Much of this is due to its high word-of-mouth and, at the time of writing, its stunningly high 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and a “Universal Acclaim” rating of 82 on Metacritic. This critical success is expected “to push Cregger more prominently into that group of auteur genre filmmakers who command interest among cinephiles and, potentially, general audiences.”
Supporting this is the film’s high appeal among men and audiences under the age of 35 when compared to Sinners and Final Destination: Bloodlines. More specifically, previews on Thursdays are trending toward $4 million, while various IMAX and premium screens are expected to push the demand of Weapons even further.
Cregger has explained why Pedro Pascal, the initial lead for Weapons, was replaced by Josh Brolin.
