Some Marvel fans are worried that The Fantastic Four: First Steps is a flop after reports that its box office numbers have dropped substantially since its debut. At first, its performance during its opening weekend were promising as it earned about $216 million at the global box office, but the movie’s numbers declined by about 66% in its second weekend. This drop continued through its third weekend in mid-August with a decline of 60%. So while the film’s current worldwide sales looks impressive at $435 million, there are concerns that it won’t turn out to be the commercial success that Disney and Marvel were expected it to be. Let’s delve into the numbers for Fantastic Four 2025 to see whether it’s heading toward being a flop or a success.
Is Fantastic Four 2025 considered a success?
The Fantastic Four: First Steps is on track to be break even at minimum after its run in theaters, so it looks like it won’t be a flop by definition. However, the film may not rake in enough at the box office to be considered a clear success.
As a reminder, the budget for Fantastic Four 2025 is “somewhere north of $200 million,” according to Variety. For high-profile summer blockbusters from Marvel and DC, the general rule of thumb is that they need to make two and a half times their production budget at the box office to break even. This factors in the substantial marketing costs that movies like this spend on promotion both domestically and internationally.
At any rate, that means the movie will need to reach at least a total of $500 million to become profitable. So while the film hasn’t reached that figure yet, it’s projected that over the next two months or so that it will cross that threshold eventually, if just barely. That said, much like with the DC’s Superman 2025 film, the executives at Marvel likely won’t consider it a financial success unless it crosses the $700 million mark, even if The Fantastic Four: First Steps succeeds as a reboot with critics and audiences. It should be worrying for Marvel that all three of its major films this year have seen a sharp downward trend, as the box office numbers for Captain America: Brave New World fell by 68% and Thunderbolts* fell by 56% in their second weekends.
Now, there are a lot of reasons for why the film is struggling at the box office. Some of it is due to the surprise hits of Weapons, The Bad Guys 2, and Freakier Friday (a bit of friendly fire there) that have slowed the momentum of Fantastic Four 2025. And of course it is competing directly with Superman 2025. On that front, the James Gunn-directed film is looking to be the top superhero film this year at the box office, as it had the benefit of being released two weeks earlier in July. So far, it has accumulated a total of $579 million worldwide with $331 million coming domestically and $247 million internationally.
Some experts believe that the Fantastic Four just isn’t as big of a draw, particularly in Asian markets, and that superhero films have fallen out of favor over the last few years (with the notable exception of Deadpool & Wolverine). Looking at superhero films in general, their performance in international markets has declined a lot, especially in China where American superhero films have been crowded out (as opposed to, say, Jurassic World: Rebirth). Ticket prices have also increased along with food and drink at the theaters due to inflation, and many are skipping a trip there anyway and deciding to wait for the movie to drop on Disney+ instead.
