In a shock, the box office predictions for Weapons have been raised over the last few weeks as we head toward its nationwide theatrical release of August 8, 2025. The horror movie, directed and written by Zach Cregger (Barbarians) and led by actors Josh Brolin and Julia Garner, has steadily gained momentum despite facing heavy summer competition with Superman, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Freaky Friday, and more. But where other films like The Bad Guys 2 and The Naked Gun have had their projections lowered because of the packed schedule, those for Weapons have surprisingly increased. Fortunately, a new report provides several insights on why the film is expected to be a surprise hit this year.
What are the box office projections for Weapons (2025)?
The latest box office projections for Weapons have it earning $25 million to $34 million during its opening weekend from August 8 to 10 and getting somewhere between $72 million and $130 million in domestic sales overall.
These figures come from a July 18 report from Box Office Theory and are further confirmed by another analysis from Deadline, which predicts that the film is tracking toward a $25M+ opener too. This is a marked increase from a July 3 report that originally predicted that the horror film would only get $23-32 million in its opening weekend and in the range of $66-109 million overall. The domestical totals have increased 10% on the lower end and nearly 20% on the high end.
There are multiple reasons for the projected success of Weapons. The film is positioned as counter-programming as an R-rated horror movie during a period that’s full of superhero action films from Superman and Fantastic Four, family-friendly movies like Freakier Friday and The Bad Guys 2, and comedy flicks like The Naked Gun. Weapons is also an original mystery horror film as opposed to other horror films that are part of an existing franchise, such as Final Destination: Bloodlines and I Know What You Did Last Summer. It will be a month until the film will face competition within its genre from The Conjuring: Last Rites, which releases on September 5.
Trailers and teasers for Weapons have also been a notable success, especially the first official trailer for the film which has garnered over 19 million views on YouTube thus far. At the time of writing, it has over 140,000 likes (and only about a thousand dislikes) with commenters being impressed by the child narration, the lack of jump scares, and its sense of dread. Its marketing campaign has been executed well, particularly the fake news site for the town of Maybrook in the movie that provides additional teasers and fake CCTV footage.
Box Office Theory’s report says that the movie’s “social trends are notably strong,” comparing it “to the likes of Longlegs, M3GAN, Smile, and others.” It believes that the film “remains a target for a potential breakout.”
Weapons has also received a lot of buzz as the supposed reason why Jordan Peele fired his management team. According to VIBE, Peele lost a bidding war over the script for Cregger’s film, losing out to New Line who offered $38 million, which contributed to him leaving Artists First.
In addition, the film originally had a release date of January 11, 2026, but was moved five months ahead of schedule to its current August 2025 date after test screenings for the movie knocked it out of the park. Josh Brolin, who tends to be rather choosy, was remarkably impressed by the movie, saying “I’m serious when I say I think it’s a really brilliant design of a script. So far, the critical reception for Weapons has followed through, as the film currently has a perfect 100% critic score from Rotten Tomatoes based on 13 reviews.
