The box office projections for Disney’s Tron Ares are showing worrying signs as the movie heads toward its opening weekend. This sequel to Tron Legacy is slated to release nationwide on Friday, October 10, though some movie-goers have already been able to catch the movie in early screenings starting Wednesday. When box office tracking began about a month ago for this third installment in the Tron series, it had the benefit of being one of the larger releases in October and having a fanbase that has been waiting for a follow-up. But several reports show that Tron Ares may not be landing as well as Disney might hope.
What are the Tron Ares box office predictions for its opening weekend?
Domestically, Tron Ares is expected to earn somewhere between $33 million and $45 million in its opening weekend, which is about $10 million less than its prior prediction of $44-55 million.
These numbers are based on an October 8 report from Box Office Theory, which has been following presale figures and general interest in Tron Ares since early September. Unfortunately, the film’s pre-sales are “lagging behind that of comparable films such as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning and other recent legacy franchise sequels.” While fans of the Tron franchise are excited to watch the film, it has yet to “reach into the walk-up friendly family market.”
It also doesn’t help that Tron Ares has not scored well with critics, as it has a Tomatometer score of 54% out of 107 reviews (at the time of writing). While some critics appreciate the visuals and the soundtrack by Nine Inch Nails, the more negative reviews say the story is incoherent and doesn’t have much to say. The Tron series has not particularly been favorable to critics, though, as even Tron Legacy only received a 51%. Still, these lower reviews make it harder for the film to attrack casual viewers.
That said, traditional tracking believes that Tron Ares will have a more solid opener, with Deadline projecting that it will earn $40 million to $45 million domestically and $80 million to $90 million worldwide. It reports that presales for the film are around $7 million, which is within the same ballpark as Alien Romulus which had a debut of $42 million. The film is expected to gain the benefit of taking over the majority of premium screens, which will help bolster its opening weekend performance, and being the only major blockbuster for the remainder of October.
While these projections might sound high, it’s important to put them into context. Other movies in 2025 that earned around $40 million in its opening weekend include the live-action Snow White ($42.2 million) and the animated film Dog Man ($36 million). More importantly, the budget for Tron Ares has been reported as $180 million, the highest of any Tron movie, which means that it will need to bring in around $450 million overall for it to break even. By that measure, an $80-90 million opener worldwide is still under the curve for profitability.
A part of the disinterest in Tron Ares stems from the movie having a new cast of characters with the exception of Jeff Bridges being some kind of guiding force. The film isn’t a direct sequel to Tron Legacy either, so it doesn’t carry as much of the momentum from its predecessor as it could have.
The lead actor, Jared Leto, has been at the center of a controversy, with the actor having denied multiple accusations of sexual misconduct in June, as reported by People. Whether these allegations are true or not, it may deter audiences from seeing Tron Ares.
