Why The Naked Gun Box Office Predictions Have Fallen Sharply

The latest numbers for The Naked Gun box office prediction have decreased significantly as the film heads toward its theatrical debut of August 1, 2025. Produced by Seth MacFarlane and led by Liam Neeson, the R-rated comedy is a rarity these days. The vast majority of comedies, except for the Deadpool series of movies, tend to go straight to streaming. Paramount Pictures is attempting to reboot the film, which first released in 1988, but its box office projections have fallen by a large margin. A new report explains some of the reasons why it may not be received as well as originally thought.

What is the latest box office tracking for The Naked Gun 2025?

The latest box office predictions for The Naked Gun has it earning approximately $15.5 million, in the range between $13 million and $18 million, in roughly 3300 theaters domestically over the weekend.

These figures are based on a July 30 report from Box Office Theory, which made projections starting on July 3 that the comedy would gross $23 million to $32 million over the same time period. That’s about a 40% reduction on both the minimum and maximum predictions. A few weeks ago, Box Office Pro also believed that the reboot would garner $20 million to $30 million.

It was originally thought that The Naked Gun revival would had a better reception due to relatively strong viewership for its teasers and trailers. The film is expected to draw an older audience for its absurdist humor and nostalgic legacy. It even earned “early social buzz from industry insiders.”

However, the site believes that it needs “to step outside its core older male audience,” particularly “in market crowded by other male-driven films.” By that, this means the two superhero blockbusters, Superman and The Fantastic Four: First Steps, are taking a large share of The Naked Gun’s audience. The release date for the film was originally July 18, right in between the debuts for the two superhero films, but it was moved to August 1 to have a better shot at the box office.